From Dr Mike Yeadon - What Will Be The Next, Serious Pandemic?

[Forwarded from Robin Monotti + Dr Mike Yeadon + Cory Morningstar]

"I’m often asked what do I think will be the next, serious pandemic. I point out that there’s never been such a thing. Just talk of one.

It’s interesting that on our side, no one else seems to have realised that what they’re forever warning us about - a high lethality, highly infectious pathogen - is as close to impossible as it gets.

Historically, the long run evidence for that is (1) we’re still here & (2) no other mammal has been decimated by respiratory viral illnesses, either.

In both cases, the reason is obvious, once you drill down a level or two.

I use to illustrate one data point (low lethality, high infectious) the common cold. Why do these whizz around the world continually? The answer is that even when you’ve got one, you’re mostly only very slightly ill. Most of us don’t stay home with a cold, so we’re busy transmitting our bugs.

Take a high lethality, low transmissible pathogen, like Ebola. First, it makes you ill the day you acquire it. No way are you traveling about. Same even if it’s a high transmissible pathogen. The key is, if it makes you ill early & that knocks you down, you’re always at home when it matters.

Result: self-extinguishing outbreaks, like MERS.

So I don’t think what they’re saying is even possible. You’d need to build in something that doesn’t happen: high transmission while you have no symptoms. Doesn’t happen. Cannot happen.

And respiratory is the Achilles Heel of animal to animal transmission. In other diseases, transmission is also poor, requiring extended & intimate contact. Quite easy to avoid.

All we need is a lot more people using the sense they were born with.

All the best",

Mike